Min and max are a share of the book. Sim cores starts the highest Opt% players 10–30 points over optimal.
Optimal
OptOwnOut
Players in at least 5% of optimal lineups. A brighter bar is a larger share of those lineups.
23%Puka NacuaWR21%
LA · $8,800 · vs WAS
23%Jahmyr GibbsRB25%
DET · $10,000 · vs MIA
22%Christian McCaffreyRB18%
SF · $8,000 · vs LV
18%CeeDee LambWR15%
DAL · $8,300 · vs IND
16%Jonah ColemanRB9%
DEN · $5,300 · vs CAR
15%Amon-Ra St. BrownWR11%
DET · $8,100 · vs MIA
15%Antonio WilliamsWR8%
WAS · $4,100 · vs LA
15%George KittleTE8%
SF · $6,000 · vs LV
15%Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR18%
SEA · $9,300 · vs ARI
12%Javonte WilliamsRB8%
DAL · $7,300 · vs IND
12%Chuba HubbardRB10%
CAR · $6,500 · vs DEN
12%Devin SingletaryRB7%
NYG · $4,600 · vs PHI
11%Adonai MitchellWR11%
NYJ · $4,500 · vs KC
11%Rhamondre StevensonRB7%
NE · $6,100 · vs GB
11%Kenneth Walker IIIRB13%
KC · $9,000 · vs NYJ
11%Malik NabersWR10%
NYG · $7,300 · vs PHI
11%Matthew GoldenWR9%
GB · $7,000 · vs NE
11%Hunter HenryTE3%
NE · $4,500 · vs GB
11%Quinshon JudkinsRB5%
CLE · $5,400 · vs NO
11%ARI DSTDST6%
ARI · $2,000 · vs SEA
10%Ollie Gordon IIRB5%
MIA · $5,600 · vs DET
10%Chris OlaveWR8%
NO · $7,400 · vs CLE
10%Rashee RiceWR10%
KC · $6,400 · vs NYJ
10%Nico CollinsWR6%
HOU · $7,200 · vs LAC
9%Woody MarksRB5%
HOU · $5,700 · vs LAC
9%Caleb DouglasWR5%
MIA · $4,200 · vs DET
9%George PickensWR5%
DAL · $6,300 · vs IND
9%Omar Cooper Jr.WR8%
NYJ · $4,900 · vs KC
8%Jonathan TaylorRB6%
IND · $7,500 · vs DAL
8%Tetairoa McMillanWR6%
CAR · $6,900 · vs DEN
8%Kyren WilliamsRB8%
LA · $7,600 · vs WAS
8%Alvin KamaraRB5%
NO · $5,000 · vs CLE
8%Ryan FlournoyWR6%
DAL · $4,800 · vs IND
8%Ladd McConkeyWR4%
LAC · $5,500 · vs HOU
8%WAS DSTDST9%
WAS · $2,300 · vs LA
8%Jameson WilliamsWR7%
DET · $6,100 · vs MIA
7%Patrick MahomesQB8%
KC · $6,100 · vs NYJ
7%Xavier SmithWR5%
SF · $3,000 · vs LV
7%Stefon DiggsWR6%
WAS · $5,600 · vs LA
7%Ashton JeantyRB5%
LV · $5,900 · vs SF
7%Malik WashingtonWR6%
MIA · $4,700 · vs DET
7%GB DSTDST8%
GB · $2,400 · vs NE
7%Jayden DanielsQB5%
WAS · $6,000 · vs LA
7%Malik WillisQB4%
MIA · $5,100 · vs DET
7%Christian WatsonWR9%
GB · $7,500 · vs NE
7%Jaylen WaddleWR6%
DEN · $5,700 · vs CAR
7%KC ConcepcionWR4%
CLE · $4,600 · vs NO
7%PHI DSTDST5%
PHI · $2,500 · vs NYG
7%Drew LockQB7%
SEA · $4,000 · vs ARI
7%DeMario DouglasWR6%
NE · $4,800 · vs GB
7%Denzel BostonWR4%
CLE · $5,000 · vs NO
7%Tyler AllgeierRB10%
ARI · $5,400 · vs SEA
6%Brock BowersTE8%
LV · $7,900 · vs SF
6%Brock PurdyQB6%
SF · $6,800 · vs LV
6%NO DSTDST5%
NO · $2,900 · vs CLE
6%LAC DSTDST4%
LAC · $2,400 · vs HOU
6%Dak PrescottQB7%
DAL · $6,500 · vs IND
6%Jalen CokerWR5%
CAR · $6,200 · vs DEN
6%Keenan AllenWR5%
IND · $4,900 · vs DAL
6%NYG DSTDST5%
NYG · $2,800 · vs PHI
6%Josh DownsWR5%
IND · $5,100 · vs DAL
6%Greg DulcichTE5%
MIA · $3,100 · vs DET
6%Rachaad WhiteRB5%
WAS · $5,100 · vs LA
6%NYJ DSTDST2%
NYJ · $2,100 · vs KC
6%Josh JacobsRB8%
GB · $6,800 · vs NE
6%Kirk CousinsQB6%
LV · $5,300 · vs SF
6%Makai LemonWR4%
PHI · $4,700 · vs NYG
5%Jared GoffQB5%
DET · $6,600 · vs MIA
5%Audric EstiméRB4%
NO · $4,000 · vs CLE
5%C.J. StroudQB5%
HOU · $5,900 · vs LAC
5%Blake CorumRB5%
LA · $5,100 · vs WAS
5%Dalton SchultzTE5%
HOU · $3,200 · vs LAC
5%J.J. McCarthyQB3%
NYG · $4,800 · vs PHI
5%Sam LaPortaTE3%
DET · $5,100 · vs MIA
5%CAR DSTDST5%
CAR · $2,600 · vs DEN
5%LV DSTDST6%
LV · $2,200 · vs SF
Together
Row is optimalabove chanceat or below
Read across a row: when that player is optimal, how often each column player joins. Green is more often than that player's overall rate.
Player
Nacua23%
Gibbs23%
McCaffrey22%
Lamb18%
Coleman16%
Brown15%
Williams15%
Kittle15%
Smith-Njigba15%
Williams12%
Hubbard12%
Singletary12%
Puka Nacua23%
23%
13%
17%
10%
18%
8%
14%
12%
8%
11%
12%
15%
Jahmyr Gibbs23%
13%
23%
11%
10%
13%
9%
20%
12%
8%
7%
9%
11%
Christian McCaffrey22%
18%
11%
22%
15%
12%
11%
16%
14%
11%
7%
8%
10%
CeeDee Lamb18%
13%
12%
18%
18%
17%
10%
14%
12%
8%
9%
11%
14%
Jonah Coleman16%
26%
19%
16%
19%
16%
18%
13%
18%
16%
9%
9%
8%
Amon-Ra St. Brown15%
13%
13%
16%
11%
19%
15%
14%
13%
9%
11%
11%
14%
Antonio Williams15%
21%
30%
23%
16%
14%
14%
15%
15%
13%
13%
12%
10%
George Kittle15%
19%
17%
21%
13%
19%
13%
15%
15%
12%
12%
12%
13%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba15%
12%
12%
15%
9%
17%
10%
13%
12%
15%
10%
11%
17%
Javonte Williams12%
21%
14%
13%
13%
12%
14%
16%
14%
13%
12%
9%
8%
Chuba Hubbard12%
23%
16%
15%
16%
12%
14%
15%
14%
14%
9%
12%
9%
Devin Singletary12%
28%
21%
18%
20%
10%
17%
13%
16%
21%
8%
9%
12%
Where the mass sits
Expected optimal players from each team and position, games with the most mass first. A cell of 1.0 is one player from that spot in the average winning lineup.
Team
QB
RB
WR
TE
DST
All
DETvs MIA
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
·
0.6
MIA
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
·
0.5
LAvs WAS
·
0.1
0.3
0.1
·
0.5
WAS
0.1
0.1
0.2
·
0.1
0.5
SFvs LV
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
·
0.6
LV
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
DALvs IND
0.1
0.1
0.3
·
·
0.6
IND
·
0.1
0.1
·
·
0.3
NEvs GB
·
0.1
0.1
0.1
·
0.4
GB
·
0.1
0.2
·
0.1
0.4
NOvs CLE
·
0.1
0.1
·
0.1
0.4
CLE
·
0.1
0.1
·
·
0.4
KCvs NYJ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
·
0.4
NYJ
·
·
0.2
·
0.1
0.3
DENvs CAR
·
0.2
0.1
·
·
0.4
CAR
·
0.1
0.1
·
0.1
0.4
NYGvs PHI
0.1
0.1
0.1
·
0.1
0.4
PHI
·
·
0.1
·
0.1
0.2
HOUvs LAC
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
·
0.4
LAC
·
·
0.1
·
0.1
0.3
SEAvs ARI
0.1
0.1
0.2
·
·
0.3
ARI
·
0.1
0.1
·
0.1
0.3
Score
10,000 max-score lineups
Average
232.2
Shape
How the winning lineup stacks the quarterback, and how many players come from that game.
Stack
QB + 1 pass catcher30.2%
QB, no pass catcher20.5%
QB + 2 pass catchers8.8%
QB + 1 pass catcher + RB6.6%
QB + 1 pass catcher, bring-back5.9%
QB + RB5.8%
QB, bring-back5.7%
QB + 1 pass catcher, RB bring-back4.9%
From the quarterback's game
2 from the quarterback's game43.4%
3 from the quarterback's game30.6%
1 from the quarterback's game19.5%
4 from the quarterback's game5.9%
5 from the quarterback's game0.5%
6 from the quarterback's game0.0%
Core
When that quarterback is optimal, how often the pass catcher joins.
Puka NacuaWR21%
Jahmyr GibbsRB25%
Christian McCaffreyRB18%
CeeDee LambWR15%
Jonah ColemanRB9%
Antonio WilliamsWR8%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR18%
Chuba HubbardRB10%
Devin SingletaryRB7%
Adonai MitchellWR11%
Rhamondre StevensonRB7%
Kenneth Walker IIIRB13%
Matthew GoldenWR9%
Quinshon JudkinsRB5%
ARI DSTDST6%
Ollie Gordon IIRB5%
Chris OlaveWR8%
Nico CollinsWR6%
Jonathan TaylorRB6%
Ladd McConkeyWR4%
Ashton JeantyRB5%
PHI DSTDST5%
Nacua23%
Gibbs23%
McCaffrey22%
Lamb18%
Coleman16%
Williams15%
Smith-Njigba15%
Hubbard12%
Singletary12%
MIA
LV
IND
NEvs GB
GB
NOvs CLE
CLE
KCvs NYJ
NYJ
PHI
HOUvs LAC
LAC
ARI