Commanders @ 49ers MNF Showdown: Purdy, Evans and a Game-Time Call

Monday Night Football closes out Week 6 with Washington visiting San Francisco at 8:15 PM ET, and it's a one-game DraftKings Showdown (draft group 154960). Our game environment makes the 49ers clear favorites, and the biggest swing on the slate is a questionable tag on San Francisco's top receiver. Below: the matchup, the injury news, captain options with our proj and CPT optimal rates, value FLEX plays, and three sims-backed build ideas. For the full game view, open the matchup page.

The matchup: SF implied for 30

• Game environment: SF -7.5 with a 52.5 total. SF is implied for 30.0 and WAS for 22.5.
• SF leans pass: +2.78 pass rate over expectation (PROE) in neutral situations this season, with a 47.2% rush rate in our game environment.
• WAS leans run: -4.03 neutral PROE, the run-heavier side of this matchup, with a 50.7% rush rate.
• Both offenses play at a similar pace in our game environment, so the gap between these teams comes from efficiency and game script, not play volume.
• Washington's defense has been friendly to passing games: 25.4 DK points per game allowed to QBs (31st), 41.4 to WRs (29th) and 22.2 to TEs (30th). It has been stingy against RBs (16.2 per game, 2nd).
• San Francisco's defense has allowed 13.7 DK points per game to QBs (4th) and 28.5 to WRs (8th), but 24.5 to RBs (23rd).

That split points the 49ers' side toward Brock Purdy, Mike Evans and George Kittle more than a pure Christian McCaffrey rushing script. On the Washington side, the backfield has a better matchup than the receivers.

Injury news

Final inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff, around 6:45 PM ET. Here's where things stood after the final injury reports and this morning's reporting. The player cards on this page update live.

• SF out: WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring), DE Nick Bosa (knee/calf), S Marques Sigle (ankle) and LB Garret Wallow (hamstring). Bosa's absence thins the 49ers' pass rush against Jayden Daniels.
• SF questionable: WR Mike Evans (ribs/Achilles) is the big one. He worked on a side field instead of practicing late in the week and is viewed as a game-time decision.
• WR Christian Kirk (calf) is also questionable and has to be activated from IR to play. Kyle Shanahan said an activation Monday is possible. Kirk ($3,000) doesn't have a projection on our board yet, so check for an update if he's activated.
• FB Kyle Juszczyk returns with no injury designation.
• WAS out: QB Marcus Mariota (knee), RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin), DE Charles Omenihu (groin/ankle) and OLB Javontae Jean-Baptiste (pectoral).
• WAS questionable: WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring). He was limited in practice and missed Week 5.
• Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler have no game designation.

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Mike Evans: the swing piece

Reports on Evans are split. Matt Maiocco said Saturday he thought Evans would play. Larry Krueger, after watching Saturday's practice, said he'd be very surprised if Evans played. This morning Tim Kawakami pointed out that the 49ers made no day-before-game roster moves, which he read as a sign they expect Evans to play. Our projection treats him as active. If he's inactive, Kittle, Brandin Cooks ($4,000), Jordan Watkins ($2,000) and Jacob Cowing ($2,200) are the 49ers' remaining pass-catchers.

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Washington's backfield without Croskey-Merritt

Dan Quinn ruled Croskey-Merritt out Saturday after he re-injured his groin. Ben Standig expects Rachaad White ($6,600) to be busy in a committee with Austin Ekeler ($3,600). RBs are San Francisco's softest spot by DK points allowed (23rd), which makes the backfield the best matchup on the Washington side.

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Diggs and the Washington receivers

Diggs is questionable after limited practices and sat out Week 5. Our projections are already low on Washington's receivers against a San Francisco defense that has been tough on quarterbacks. At $8,400 for Diggs and $8,000 for McLaurin, neither is a strong salary fit.

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Captain options

CPT optimal rate is how often a player is the captain in our sims' optimal lineups. Optimal rate is how often he appears anywhere in them. The captain costs 1.5x salary and scores 1.5x points.

• Mike Evans (SF WR): CPT $14,400, FLEX $9,600 · proj 19.4 · CPT optimal rate 25.2% · optimal rate 70.5%. The top CPT optimal rate on the slate, but only if he's active.
• Brock Purdy (SF QB): CPT $16,200, FLEX $10,800 · proj 20.8 · CPT optimal rate 21.0% · optimal rate 83.2%, the highest on the slate. Washington has allowed the second-most DK points per game to QBs.
• Jayden Daniels (WAS QB): CPT $15,000, FLEX $10,000 · proj 17.5 · CPT optimal rate 18.5% · optimal rate 69.0%. The best captain from the Washington side.
• Christian McCaffrey (SF RB): CPT $17,700, FLEX $11,800 · proj 15.7 · CPT optimal rate 10.1% · optimal rate 48.2%. The most expensive captain, against a Washington defense that has been tough on RBs.
• George Kittle (SF TE): CPT $12,300, FLEX $8,200 · proj 13.4 · CPT optimal rate 9.6% · optimal rate 47.3%. Washington has allowed the third-most DK points per game to TEs, and Kittle is the cleanest captain pivot if Evans sits.

Value FLEX plays

• Austin Ekeler (WAS RB): $3,600 · proj 7.2 · optimal rate 24.6%. Cheapest piece of the Washington committee.
• Rachaad White (WAS RB): $6,600 · proj 9.5 · optimal rate 29.5%. Lead back with Croskey-Merritt out.
• Brandin Cooks (SF WR): $4,000 · proj 4.8 · optimal rate 11.6%. More targets if Evans is out.
• Jordan Watkins (SF WR): $2,000 · proj 3.5 · optimal rate 8.1%.
• Kyle Juszczyk (SF RB): $1,400 · proj 3.1 · optimal rate 6.9%. Back from injury this week.
• Van Jefferson (WAS WR): $800 · proj 2.8 · optimal rate 6.8%.
• Defenses: SF DST $4,400 · proj 6.3 · optimal rate 16.9%. WAS DST $3,400 · proj 5.3 · optimal rate 13.6%.
• Devin Neal and Xavier Smith are cheap, but neither has played an offensive snap this season, so our builds skip them.
• Kickers aren't part of our projections, so we don't cover them here.

Showdown build ideas from our sims

In our sim-built lineups, a 4-2 team split is the most common shape, followed by 3-3 and 5-1. Here are three ways to use that, each taken from lineups our optimizer built from mean projections.

• Split shapes in our sim-built lineups: 4-2 in 44.7%, 3-3 in 28.8%, 5-1 in 21.5% and 6-0 in 5.1%.
• Balanced double-QB (4-2): Purdy at CPT with Evans, Kittle and Daniels at FLEX. Van Jefferson and a kicker filled the last two spots for exactly $50,000. This was the top Purdy-captain build our optimizer found.
• SF onslaught (5-1): Purdy at CPT with McCaffrey, Evans, Watkins and Cowing, and McLaurin as the lone Washington piece. This build goes all in on the 49ers covering the 7.5.
• Washington-side 3-3: Daniels at CPT with White and Ekeler, plus Purdy, Evans and SF DST, for exactly $50,000. This build bets on Washington keeping pace.
• If Evans is inactive, move Kittle into his spot at CPT or FLEX and use Cooks or Watkins to save salary.

Live watch: tonight's core

Data: dfs-stack.ai. Check final inactives before lock, and see the full board on our projections page.