Notes
NFL Week 8 Game by Game: Pass Rates, Key Players and Injury News
Tyler Redshaw
Here is a game-by-game look at all 11 games on the Week 8 DraftKings Sunday main slate: which offenses like to throw, the players worth knowing, and the injury news that matters. Each game ends with a watch list that shows live injury status, projections and snap share, so it stays current as inactives come in.
A quick word on pass rate over expectation (PROE). It compares how often a team actually throws with how often an average team would throw in the same game situations. A positive number means the offense passes more than expected. A negative number means it leans on the run. All PROE numbers below cover the season through Week 7 and only count neutral game scripts, when the game is still competitive. You can compare every team on the team tendencies page.
Ravens at Bills
Josh Allen ($7,700) leads the whole slate at 23.7 proj. Buffalo's DJ Moore (shoulder) and Dalton Kincaid (chest) are both questionable. Lamar Jackson is back for Baltimore after missing last week, and Derrick Henry carries the run game. Both offenses lean run: Buffalo is at -5.1 PROE and Baltimore at -5.8. Allen is the top proj on the board, and Jackson's return makes this a two-sided game.
$7,900, 16.0 proj in a Buffalo offense that leans run.
Mean 17.5 · p90 28.6 · Snap 67%
questionable (chest), so check his status Sunday morning.
Mean 7.3 · p90 14.3 · Snap 68%
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Vikings at Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,500) is the most expensive player on the slate at 23.2 proj. Detroit ruled out safety Kerby Joseph, and Isiah Pacheco remains on IR. Minnesota leans run at -4.4 PROE, and Detroit sits near neutral at -0.7. Gibbs and St. Brown are the core of Detroit's offense at home.
$7,100, 16.4 proj with Kyler Murray ($5,600, 17.1 proj) at quarterback.
Mean 10.9 · p90 20.2 · Snap 77%
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Cardinals at Cowboys
Dallas is at +1.6 PROE and has three of the slate's top pass-game pieces. George Pickens (shoulder/hamstring) is questionable, and KaVontae Turpin is out. Arizona is without James Conner (IR) and tight end Tip Reiman. The best game on the slate to build around from both sides.
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Browns at Steelers
Pittsburgh is at +3.0 PROE, Cleveland at +1.1. The Steelers ruled out cornerbacks Brandin Echols and Doneiko Slaughter. Browns tackle Tytus Howard (concussion) is questionable. Warren is the top non-QB proj in this division game.
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Falcons at Buccaneers
Two of the slate's most run-heavy offenses meet: Atlanta is at -7.5 PROE and Tampa Bay at -7.2. Emeka Egbuka (foot) is out for the Bucs, and Kenny Gainwell (hip) is questionable. Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving lead Tampa Bay. Atlanta is without Brian Robinson Jr. Bijan is the top proj in a game both teams want to run.
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Colts at Jaguars
Jacksonville is the home side with Trevor Lawrence. Indianapolis has Alec Pierce on IR and ruled out Anthony Gould, and Jakobi Meyers (hamstring/ankle) is questionable for the Jaguars. Jonathan Taylor stays a Colt for now despite trade calls, and he has played 80% of Indianapolis' snaps this season. Lawrence is a mid-priced quarterback with a strong proj.
Tuten was a non-participant at Monday's walkthrough due to ankle and foot injuries.
$5,900, 13.6 proj.
Mean 10.2 · p90 18.4 · Snap 56%
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Titans at Bengals
Cincinnati's +7.5 PROE is the highest of any offense on the slate. Tennessee's -11.7 is the second lowest. The Titans ruled out Tyjae Spears and wide receiver Carnell Tate, and Calvin Ridley (hip) is questionable. Ja'Marr Chase sat out Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury and rest, then was a full participant Thursday. The most pass-happy offense on the slate, at home.
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Raiders at Jets
Brock Bowers is the second-ranked tight end here at 16.2 proj. Breece Hall (quad) is questionable for the Jets after missing last week. The Raiders are expected to activate wide receiver Jack Bech from IR. Bowers is the top proj on the Raiders, and Hall's status shapes the Jets backfield.
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Chargers at Rams
The Chargers' -12.2 PROE is the lowest of any offense on the slate, and they ruled out Derwin James Jr. and wide receiver Brenen Thompson. The Rams are at +4.7 PROE, and Davante Adams is on IR. Nacua is the focal point of a pass-leaning offense with Adams out.
Stafford left the locker room after Sunday's 24-9 win over the Chargers with a bag of ice wrapped on his right arm, and Rams coach Sean McVay acknowledged Monday that the quarterback has been dealing with some arm soreness, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.
$6,400, 18.0 proj.
Mean 20.5 · p90 31.3 · Snap 98%
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Chiefs at Broncos
Kansas City is at +1.5 PROE and Denver is near neutral at -0.3. Denver ruled out RJ Harvey, and Jaylen Waddle (chest) is questionable. Rashee Rice missed last week and is not on this week's injury report. Walker is the top proj in this game, and Coleman is a cheap Denver back with Harvey out.
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Patriots at Dolphins
New England downgraded A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson to out. Miami leans hard on the run at -8.6 PROE, and New England is near neutral at -0.1. Maye and Stevenson pick up the slack for a short-handed Patriots offense.
foot. Henry (foot) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game in Miami.
$4,300, 10.6 proj with Brown out.
Mean 8.3 · p90 15.8 · Snap 74%
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Lower-Owned Players With Good Spots
Most lineups this week will start with CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua and Jahmyr Gibbs. These are players with strong matchups that outside ownership projections have at about 10% or lower as of Saturday afternoon. Ranges combine several public projections and will move by Sunday. Live numbers are on the projections page.
Quarterback: Kyler Murray ($5,600, 17.1 proj) is projected around 2-4% owned against a Detroit defense that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks and tight ends this season. Jacoby Brissett ($5,700, 19.4 proj) is around 4-7% in Arizona at Dallas, a matchup of two of the fastest-paced offenses on the slate. Lamar Jackson is around 4-6% against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the most points to wide receivers.
Running back and receiver: Kenneth Walker III ($8,800, 18.3 proj) is around 7-10% owned in the late game at Denver, with 48% of Kansas City's carries and three games over 26 DraftKings points. Justin Jefferson ($7,100, 16.4 proj) is around 8-10% against a Detroit defense that has allowed the third-most points to receivers. Michael Wilson ($6,200, 12.9 proj) is around 6-9% and drew 13 and 17 targets in his last two games, with tight end Tip Reiman out.
Tight end and defense: T.J. Hockenson ($4,600, 10.2 proj) is around 3-5% owned in that same Detroit matchup. Travis Kelce ($5,000, 10.1 proj) is around 2-6% after 28.1 DraftKings points last week. The Patriots defense ($3,600) is around 3-6% against a Miami offense that has thrown interceptions at the second-highest rate on the slate.
Three games to stack from the side fewer people will: Minnesota at Detroit through Murray, Jefferson and Hockenson; Arizona at Dallas through Brissett, Michael Wilson and Trey McBride; and the Raiders at the Jets through Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson. Team pass rates are on the team tendencies page.
hamstring. Murray (hamstring), who is dealing with a sore hamstring, is undergoing a full evaluation to determine the extent of the issue, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports.
$5,600, 17.1 proj against the defense that allows the most points to quarterbacks.
Mean 14.7 · p90 23.4 · Snap 83%
$5,700, 19.4 proj in one of the fastest-paced games on the slate.
Mean 18.9 · p90 28.9 · Snap 100%
Wilson said after Sunday's 33-30 win at Dallas that he suffered two broken ribs during the contest, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.
$6,200, 12.9 proj after 13 and 17 targets.
Mean 9.7 · p90 17.9 · Snap 90%
$4,600, 10.2 proj against the defense that allows the most points to tight ends.
Mean 8.8 · p90 16.2 · Snap 64%
Wrap-up
Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, so check back Sunday morning. The watch lists above update live, and the full board is on the Week 8 projections page.
Status, mean, and snap share on this note follow the board.
Open projections