Notes

Week 6 DraftKings Main Slate: Cash Plays and GPP Plays

Tyler Redshaw

Ten games make up Sunday's DraftKings main slate (draft group 154941), and three of them stand above the rest. Below are the plays our model likes for cash games and for tournaments, built from our mean projections (proj), optimal rates (how often a player shows up in our optimal lineups), team totals, and usage shares. Kickers aren't part of our projections, and defenses get only a brief mention.

Start with the game environments. Ranked by our implied team totals:

  • LA vs ARI: LA is implied for 32.0, the highest on the slate. The Rams also pass above expectation in neutral situations (+5.14 PROE).
  • BUF at LV: the top game total at 53.5. BUF is implied for 29.0, LV for 24.5. BUF leans run (-5.66 PROE).
  • CHI at ATL: total 52.5, with CHI implied for 27.0 and ATL for 25.5. CHI has the fastest pace on the slate, but both teams run more than expected (CHI -5.16, ATL -10.0 PROE).
  • Next tier: IND 25.75, NE 25.5, KC 24.5, NO 24.0.
  • Most pass-leaning teams by neutral PROE: PIT (+5.58), CAR (+5.35), LA (+5.14), CLE (+3.77).

A caveat that runs through this whole slate: several starting quarterbacks and lead backs are out, and our projections already account for it. The injury notes near the bottom list who is affected.

Cash plays

For cash games we want high proj, strong optimal rates, secure roles, and good value per $1K. These are the players who check the most boxes in our numbers.

Cash: QB

  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB) — $6,400 · proj 23.83 · optimal rate 17.1% · 3.72 proj per $1K · our #1 QB by both proj and optimal rate. 96.8% snap rate. LA is implied for 32.0 with +5.14 PROE.
  • Tyler Huntley (BAL QB) — $4,700 · proj 18.31 · optimal rate 8.6% · 3.90 proj per $1K · the #2 QB by optimal rate. 26.5% projected rush share adds a rushing component at a $4,700 price.

Cash: RB

  • Bijan Robinson (ATL RB) — $8,700 · proj 24.48 · optimal rate 32.6% · 2.81 proj per $1K · the top RB proj on the slate. 53.2% projected rush share plus a 16.3% target share.
  • Kyren Williams (LA RB) — $6,800 · proj 20.15 · optimal rate 26.8% · 2.96 proj per $1K · 58.4% projected rush share, on the team with the slate's highest implied total (32.0).
  • Braelon Allen (NYJ RB) — $5,700 · proj 13.80 · optimal rate 10.9% · 2.42 proj per $1K · 65.6% projected rush share, with 86% of snaps last week.

Cash: WR

  • Puka Nacua (LA WR) — $8,100 · proj 20.92 · optimal rate 25.5% · 2.58 proj per $1K · the top WR proj on the slate. 26.3% projected target share.
  • Drake London (ATL WR) — $7,000 · proj 16.55 · optimal rate 20.3% · 2.36 proj per $1K · 26.3% projected target share and an 88% snap rate.
  • Germie Bernard (PIT WR) — $4,000 · proj 11.41 · optimal rate 12.8% · 2.85 proj per $1K · 21.1% projected target share, with 92% of snaps last week, on the slate's most pass-leaning team (+5.58 PROE).

Cash: TE

  • Isaiah Likely (NYG TE) — $4,800 · proj 12.76 · optimal rate 12.8% · 2.66 proj per $1K · the top TE by optimal rate. 21.4% projected target share and 80% of snaps last week.
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE) — $3,400 · proj 10.20 · optimal rate 9.8% · 3.00 proj per $1K · a cheap way into LA's 32.0 implied total. 13.3% projected target share.
QBMatthew StaffordLA

Our top QB this week, on the slate's highest implied team total.

Mean 23.8 · p90 35.2 · Snap 97%

RBBijan RobinsonATL

The top RB proj on the slate, with work as both a runner and a receiver.

Mean 24.4 · p90 37.6 · Snap 68%

RBKyren WilliamsLA

A lead role on the slate's highest-total offense.

Mean 20.2 · p90 31.9 · Snap 69%

WRPuka NacuaLA

The top WR proj on the slate.

Mean 21.0 · p90 34.0 · Snap 82%

WRDrake LondonATL

A steady target share in a 52.5-total game.

Mean 16.5 · p90 29.2 · Snap 88%

TEIsaiah LikelyNYG

The top TE by optimal rate, at a mid-tier price.

Mean 12.6 · p90 22.1 · Snap 70%

GPP plays

For tournaments we look for the gap between our numbers and the conversation: players with strong optimal rates that this week's public picks mostly skip. Several of these could also go in cash lineups.

  • D'Andre Swift (CHI RB) — $6,700 · proj 23.31 · optimal rate 41.8% · 3.48 proj per $1K · the slate's #1 RB by optimal rate. 60.8% projected rush share, with CHI RB Kyle Monangai ruled out.
  • Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB) — $6,300 · proj 20.87 · optimal rate 33.5% · 3.31 proj per $1K · 83.6% projected rush share, the most concentrated backfield role in our data this week. CAR RB AJ Dillon is out.
  • Xavier Worthy (KC WR) — $4,600 · proj 18.81 · optimal rate 41.0% · 4.09 proj per $1K · the slate's #1 WR by optimal rate and the best proj per $1K on the slate. 34.1% projected target share, with KC WR Rashee Rice out.
  • Davante Adams (LA WR) — $6,600 · proj 15.25 · optimal rate 16.6% · 2.31 proj per $1K · 18.8% projected target share and a 74% snap rate, on LA's 32.0 implied total.
  • DK Metcalf (PIT WR) — $5,700 · proj 15.13 · optimal rate 19.6% · 2.65 proj per $1K · 29.4% projected target share and a 95.4% snap rate. He's questionable (illness), so check his status before lock and play him only if active.
  • Zay Flowers (BAL WR) — $7,100 · proj 15.43 · optimal rate 15.1% · 2.17 proj per $1K · 25.8% projected target share.
RBD'Andre SwiftCHI

The top RB by optimal rate, with little public attention.

Mean 23.2 · p90 35.1 · Snap 57%

RBChuba HubbardCAR

Carries almost the whole backfield workload in our projection.

Mean 21.0 · p90 32.0 · Snap 76%

WRXavier WorthyKC

The top WR by optimal rate, and the best value on the slate.

Mean 18.9 · p90 31.3 · Snap 80%

WRDavante AdamsLAOUT

Adams sustained a ruptured left hamstring in Sunday's 18-16 loss to the Cardinals and is slated to undergo a procedure that he hopes will allow him to return a little after the Rams' Week 11 bye, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.

Stafford's most common pairing in our stack data.

Mean 15.4 · p90 27.9 · Snap 74%

WRDK MetcalfPIT

Check his status before lock. A heavy target share if he plays.

Mean 15.1 · p90 26.7 · Snap 95%

Stacks

The pairing rate is how often the receiver appears in our generated lineups that include that quarterback. These are the stacks our builds favor.

  • Stafford + Adams and/or Puka, with Trey McBride as the bring-back. Adams is Stafford's most common pairing in our stack data (32.9%). Stafford: $6,400 · proj 23.83 · optimal rate 17.1%. McBride (ARI TE): $7,200 · proj 14.44 · optimal rate 6.5% · 23.4% projected target share · 89.2% snap rate.
  • Mahomes + Worthy. Worthy appears in 76.0% of our Mahomes builds, the highest pairing rate on the slate. Mahomes: $6,500 · proj 17.54 · optimal rate 3.5%. KC is implied for 24.5.
  • Penix + London, with Swift and/or Bijan. Penix-to-London pairs at 58.7%. Penix: $5,000 · proj 15.19 · optimal rate 3.2%. The game total is 52.5, and both teams run more than expected, so building through the backfields fits.
  • Huntley + Flowers. 48.8% pairing rate. Huntley: $4,700 · proj 18.31 · optimal rate 8.6%.
  • Rodgers + Metcalf, only if Metcalf is active. 58.0% pairing rate. Rodgers: $5,500 · proj 16.47 · optimal rate 4.0%. PIT has the slate's highest neutral PROE (+5.58). Bernard is the cheaper pass-catcher option in this stack.

Popular plays our numbers are lukewarm on

These players are widely recommended this week. Our numbers are cooler on them, often because a cheaper option shows a higher optimal rate.

  • Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) — $8,500 · proj 15.11 · optimal rate 5.9% · 1.78 proj per $1K · 44.4% projected rush share. Compare Hubbard at $6,300.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB) — $6,000 · proj 11.07 · optimal rate 4.0% · 1.84 proj per $1K · 35.7% projected rush share; our model still projects NE RB TreVeyon Henderson for a role.
  • Josh Allen (BUF QB) — $7,500 · proj 21.91 · optimal rate 8.5% · 2.92 proj per $1K · BUF leans run (-5.66 PROE). Stafford projects higher for $1,100 less.
  • Daniel Jones (IND QB) — $5,200 · proj 14.65 · optimal rate 2.4% · 2.82 proj per $1K · IND is implied for 25.75, but his proj trails cheaper QBs.
  • Brock Bowers (LV TE) — $7,500 · proj 14.76 · optimal rate 8.5% · 1.97 proj per $1K · the top TE proj, but Likely has the higher optimal rate at $4,800. 21.7% projected target share.
  • Carnell Tate (TEN WR) — $5,000 · proj 7.39 · optimal rate 2.4% · 1.48 proj per $1K · 16.0% projected target share; TEN is implied for 18.75.
  • Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE TE) — $4,100 · proj 7.11 · optimal rate 2.3% · 1.73 proj per $1K · 14.1% projected target share; CLE is implied for 18.25.
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB) — $5,800 · proj 8.93 · optimal rate 1.7% · 1.54 proj per $1K · 30.1% projected rush share.

Injury notes

These are the outs and questionable tags that move the slate, as of Saturday morning ET. The player cards on this page update live.

  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts and RB Saquon Barkley are out. Tanner McKee is the PHI QB in our projections ($4,000 · proj 14.39).
  • BAL: QB Lamar Jackson is out. Tyler Huntley is the BAL QB in our projections ($4,700 · proj 18.31).
  • TB: QB Baker Mayfield is out. Jalon Daniels is the TB QB in our projections ($4,800 · proj 15.82).
  • NYJ: RB Breece Hall and WR Adonai Mitchell are out.
  • ARI: RB Jeremiyah Love is out. Tyler Allgeier ($4,800 · proj 11.43) leads the ARI backfield in our projections.
  • KC: WR Rashee Rice is out. CHI: RB Kyle Monangai is out. CAR: RB AJ Dillon is out.
  • PIT: WR Michael Pittman Jr. is on IR; WRs Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek are out.
  • Questionable but still projected: DK Metcalf (PIT), Caleb Williams (CHI), Chris Olave (NO), Alvin Kamara (NO), TreVeyon Henderson (NE), DJ Moore (BUF), Tyler Warren (IND), Quinshon Judkins (CLE). Check status before lock.

Defense stays a minor lever this week. Our DST projections sit in a narrow band, so spend your salary on the skill positions first. For the full board by position, see our Week 6 projections.

See every player's proj, optimal rate and usage share before Sunday's lock.

Open the Week 6 projections

All notesNFL notes